Currency Reports
Currency Report - 11th Nov 2005
21.11.2005.
Currency Strategists: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Expects Pound to Weaken
Nov. 21 - The pound will extend its three-week drop against the dollar as the Federal Reserve adds to a series of interest-rate increases next year and the Bank of England leaves the main rate on hold, said Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Ltd.
The Bank of England in August cut the benchmark rate for the first time in more than two years as economic growth slowed to a 12-year low.
"A breach of the $1.70 level looks imminent," wrote currency strategists at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Ltd., led by Paul Chertkow, in a report to clients published Nov. 18. "The Bank of England inflation report has reinforced our view that the repurchase rate will remain unchanged at 4.5 percent in the foreseeable future."
The pound has dropped more than 10 percent versus the dollar this year, its biggest annual drop since 1992, as the Federal Reserve has raised the interest-rate target for overnight loans between banks seven times to 4 percent. Futures traders predict the Fed will lift its target rate at least twice by March, to 4.5 percent. That would be the first time the Fed's benchmark rate matched the Bank of England's equivalent rate since Jan. 2001.
"In circumstances of unchanged interest rates in the U.K. and continued measured increases in the federal funds rate in the U.S. over the first half of 2006, the pound will remain vulnerable to further depreciation against the dollar," wrote Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, who forecast the pound dropping to $1.67 by the end of the first quarter in 2006.
Growth, Inflation Slowing
Chertkow, who previously worked at Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG, confirmed the report in a telephone interview. He holds a doctorate in economics from the London School of Economics.
U.K. jobless claims rose for a ninth month in October, extending the longest period of increases in almost 13 years, as slowing economic growth forced companies to cut costs, a government report showed Nov. 16. A separate government report on Nov. 15 showed inflation slowed for the first time in more than a year last month as oil prices dropped.
Gross domestic product in Europe's second-biggest economy rose 0.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, after gaining 0.5 percent in the prior quarter, the Office for National Statistics said Oct. 21. The annual rate of expansion was 1.6 percent, from 1.5 percent the month before, the slowest since March 1993.
"It is perfectly reasonable to leave rates on hold" because there's a risk growth and inflation may accelerate, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said at a press briefing in London after the bank released its quarterly inflation report.
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, a unit of Japan's biggest bank, were the third most accurate forecaster of the pound against the euro, and the fifth most accurate of the pound against the dollar, in the second quarter of 2005, according to a Bloomberg survey of 49 traders and strategists.
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